Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
